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Is area burned going up because of fuel accumulation? Weather patterns? Less effective response? Better record keeping?


Looks like it's mostly fuel, with some help from weather: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2018/08/14/wildfires...


A lot of it is fuel, though that's increasing due to both a century of near-total suppression, which began around 1910-1920, with an "out by 10" policy -- the idea that any fire should be completely suppressed by 10am -- explicitly stated by 1935:

https://www.shraboise.com/2017/09/91317-10-m-policy-u-s-fore...

Other factors are compounding this:

- Diseased forests. Largely beatle infestations and factors such as oak blight. These and similar affect much of the West.

- Monsoon/drought cycles. These both lead to more fuel (monsoon) and drier fuel (drought).

- Weather is a factor. Low humidities (in the past week, down into the teens) and high winds. Disruption of the Jet Stream may be exacerbating this.

- Climate: Shorter wet seasons, longer dry seasons, and more variable weather cycles (heavier rains, stronger winds, lower humidities) don't help.

- Human factors: encroachment on the wilderness interface, ignition sources, building codes, transport routes, etc., effect both frequency and impacts. Many fires are of natural origin, thought that's only about 15%. How much that percentage has changed since 1930 I don't know.

NB: general information and perceptions, though they should stand up.

LA Times lists several of these factors: https://www.latimes.com/local/wildfires/la-me-g-california-f...

This wildfire fighter veteran gives fuel and weather principally: https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/j5nde4/a-veteran-firefigh...

That's similar to a long conversation I'd had with a retired forestry worker in 2007. Chance encounter on a road trip, he talked about the idiocy of total suppression policy at the time. Unfortunately, not citable, though it was a very memorable discussion.

Ignition sources: https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2019-10-29/how-do-w...




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