> Aggregate odds are not individual odds. About one in three of my meals are breakfast, but the odds of my next meal being breakfast are incredibly low.
If you want to convince someone that a lottery is a bad bet, you have to convince them that working and investing is a better investment for them
Odds are odds. And I think that if people understood that they are at least 24,000 times more likely to become a millionaire by starting a business than they are by playing the lottery, they would start a business instead of playing the lottery.
I think parent's point, though, is that for many people the odds of becoming a millionaire starting a business are effectively zero. Their odds are actually greater with the lottery.
Also, starting a business is a lot of work, whereas buying a lottery ticket costs you maybe $2, so their expected ROI from the lottery is considerably higher.
Of course, that just means neither one is a good investment, but what you're really buying with a lottery ticket is the fun of imagining what you would do if you win, which isn't necessarily a bad deal for the price.
and you're infinitely more likely to become a millionaire by writing code than by writing HN comments. Everybody reading this should bugger off and do something useful! :)
I am not going to become a millionaire anytime soon writing code for my employer at my rate while I might have a chance getting some inspiration through all these comments and jotting out some thoughts to push me to finally pull the trigger.
Odds are odds. And I think that if people understood that they are at least 24,000 times more likely to become a millionaire by starting a business than they are by playing the lottery, they would start a business instead of playing the lottery.