I found this fascinating, and fun to play with. My own academic background is in industrial engineering, and a big part of my career has been creating analytical tools (as software) for planners. So this sort of thing is right up my alley.
Here's the problem I often run into - how valuable is this, really, compared to a good and much simpler heuristic. For instance - how well would this compare to a rule of "buy if you plan to be in the house more than [five/seven/ten] years?" One story they like to tell in operations research classes is about a couple of programmers discussing the implications of rounding when an input (viscosity) had been estimated by a field worker rubbing mud between his fingers and typing something in...
Another factor is that, in my "adult" life (adult being where I made enough money to squeak into the housing market if I so chose), housing has fluctuated wildly. I finished grad school in about 2000. Since then, housing has made a mocker of pretty much every financial decision I've made. The amount I saved was generally eclipsed by the amount San Francisco housing values increased between 2000 and 2007, dropped between 2007 and 2012, rocketed up again since then.
In spite of all that, I think that this is a very worthy tool, especially if it helps people really understand the factors that go into a decision. But considering how unpredictable everything is... do you think it really adds much as a true planning tool, beyond a vastly simpler heuristic?
Here's the problem I often run into - how valuable is this, really, compared to a good and much simpler heuristic. For instance - how well would this compare to a rule of "buy if you plan to be in the house more than [five/seven/ten] years?" One story they like to tell in operations research classes is about a couple of programmers discussing the implications of rounding when an input (viscosity) had been estimated by a field worker rubbing mud between his fingers and typing something in...
Another factor is that, in my "adult" life (adult being where I made enough money to squeak into the housing market if I so chose), housing has fluctuated wildly. I finished grad school in about 2000. Since then, housing has made a mocker of pretty much every financial decision I've made. The amount I saved was generally eclipsed by the amount San Francisco housing values increased between 2000 and 2007, dropped between 2007 and 2012, rocketed up again since then.
In spite of all that, I think that this is a very worthy tool, especially if it helps people really understand the factors that go into a decision. But considering how unpredictable everything is... do you think it really adds much as a true planning tool, beyond a vastly simpler heuristic?