> Unless "future" happens to be "next tuesday", and "loss" happens to be "catastrophic fire".
That's why people should learn statistics and probability. By buying insurance, you're betting that your house will burn down pretty soon. The insurance company is betting it won't burn down very soon. On average, the insurance company comes out ahead. How do we know? They stay in business, a business paid for with your money.
I'd argue that by buying insurance, I'm not betting that my house will burn down soon - I'm betting that were it to burn down, I'd be proper fucked without insurance.
Probability works in the long run. If I bet you a dollar on a coin flip, my expected return is $0.50, but I will not get $0.50 - I will either get $1.00, or zilch.
Besides, when the insurance company loses the house-on-fire bet, they lose some money. When I lose the house-on-fire bet, I lose everything I own if I'm lucky.
That's why people should learn statistics and probability. By buying insurance, you're betting that your house will burn down pretty soon. The insurance company is betting it won't burn down very soon. On average, the insurance company comes out ahead. How do we know? They stay in business, a business paid for with your money.