If the cars could drive themselves, they would probably be more like taxis without the drivers. We no longer need parking lots because the cars are constantly in use, that will free up a lot of space and mirror what already happens in dense urban areas (which depend on taxis, public transit, parking is very $$$). The cars will wear out in a couple of years from constant use (or maybe not if electric?), but we won't need as many of them. Rush hour commutes are a problem, but road capacity is limited anyways and peak pricing + mass transit + car pooling can lead to a workable solution.
Eventually, since all cars are automated, safe highway speeds could be increased dramatically (reduce space between cars, more predictability, reroute and reduce speeds to prevent full stop bottlenecks). Accordingly, you won't even be able to enter the highway in manual mode.
I agree, it could definitely be a situation where owning a car is like owning a plane. Sure, some people do it as hobbyists, but why would you when there are extremely efficient (computer operated) and inexpensive (no taxi driver, 100% uptime except for filling up/charging) taxi services that can take you around. Especially as more people use them (thus reducing wait times) I could see taxis being usable/profitable even in the suburbs.
I wonder, since cars also have a large social signalling aspect, at least in many societies.
I guess that can still be maintained, with various levels of luxury in taxis/rentals/however it works.
But then where will all that social signalling money go? I guess since it's mostly financed money anyway, that capital will have to seek other venues? Will consumer debt drop due to this? Or will something else pick up the slack?
I think simply owning a car will be such a signal, similar to how owning a plane today is a mark of the super-wealthy. There will be "automotive Boeings" that produce cars for transportation companies, boutique shops that produce them for the wealthy, and not much in between.
Yes, this is already the case in China and I suspect in many places around the world. In Shenzhen, taxis are very cheap and available within 100m around the clock pretty much everywhere. Even if you drive on average 1 hour per day which is very unusual in a high density city, owning a car would probably be more expensive then always taking the taxi. Yet, a lot of people still purchase cars (mostly luxury brands).
I suspect this is the case almost everywhere in the world. A car's purchase price + gas + maintenance + taxes easily surpasses what you'd spend on taxis, even in a 5 year period. The keys to car ownership are convenience and the emotional aspects.
You're right that people now use their vehicles for a variety of tasks, but I think that's actually part of the problem.
My dad has a pontoon boat that he has to twice yearly haul around. It might make more sense to get something specialized for those two days than drive something sufficiently powerful and fuel inefficient year round.
my car? Like I own the car? Why would you own a car? Who takes care of the maintenance?
Just kidding. But seriously, if self-driving cars were a thing, I can think of very few reasons why any normal people would own cars.