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Average vehicle fuel economy hit its all-time high [1], and there's been a massive cut-back in how much people drive [2]. Americans are driving less and when they do drive, they're driving cars that use less fuel per mile.

You can likely credit the fuel economy increase on the federal mandates for higher MPG ratings on new cars, and the cut-back in driving on the high unemployment and stagnant/falling real wages of the employed.

Whatever the cause for the drop in September/October 2011 was, that was only a drop in refinery sales, as gas sales at the pump experienced no such fall [3].

1: http://www.csmonitor.com/Business/2012/0223/Americans-trend-...

2: http://www.brookings.edu/research/reports/2008/12/16-transpo...

3: http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_gasoline_station_sales



That would explain the steady decline, but doesn't explain what I think is the real question, the drastic drop starting in October 2011.


The data seems a bit fishy to me. I have a hard time believing that gasoline consumption did not change for 22 years (1986 to 2008).


Thats not what the data represents. It represents sales by refiners to retail. That is buying gas from a Shell gas station (also a refiner) counts, buying gas from a mom + pop corner store who wholesale buys their gas from a refiner (or distributor) doesn't count. The graph seems to just say that some refiner sold off their retail gas stations (or something like that).


Alternatively, you can credit both the fuel economy increase and the cut-back in driving on higher gas prices, which can in turn be credited to rising global demand for gasoline.


Prices can rise in response to both rising demand and falling supply.

Given that we're within the window of peak oil forecasts, and demand (particularly in India and China) has been rising, it's very likely both.


You can likely credit the fuel economy increase on the federal mandates for higher MPG ratings on new cars...

I'm not sure how likely that is. Seems to me that when gas is cheap, people buy big, powerful cars (e.g. SUVs) with little regard to fuel economy. When gas prices rise, people buy small economical cars. People buy what they think they can afford and makes sense for them, and automakers make more of what the customers are buying and less of what they are not buying.


the dip in refinery sales might be related to the shutdown of a few refineries which appears to have occurred during fall 2011.

here is a google search i used: https://www.google.com/search?q=gas+refinery+shuts+down&...

edit: speeling.


Year______Cars____Trucks_________ Total

2011_ 6,089,422___ 6,951,210___ 13,040,632

2010_ 5,635,433___ 6,136,787__ 11,772,220

2009_ 5,400,890___ 5,200,478___ 10,601,368

Here are some data. Lots of trucks.

Fleet Fuel economy != improving ?

edit:

Newer trucks are not much better on Gas, still ~20Mpg/ish

Maybe old trucks were horrible? Dunno

If not replacements, blending in more trucks is not helping MPGs




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