My theory is Russia can continue to produce long range weapons and drones in factories near the Urals or even beyond in Siberia, far out of reach of anything the Ukrainians can get their hands on, and just outproduce the Ukrainians as long as it takes.

They're certainly trying. Had you asked me before the full scale invasion, I would have answered differently. But Ukraine still stands, and it's looking more and more like a Finland-like situation. After all the repatrionization propaganda that doesn't look good for Putin. And the Russian economy absolutely suffers from this, we just don't know how much.