Your point being what, that there's a speculative boom in petroleum prices?
It's a finite resource with a growing demand. Seems like my argument requires less in the way of elaborate justification.
I don't expect to convince you of anything. So: write it down. In 2012 you thought $4 gas was going to stop getting more expensive. In 2014 when it hits $5, you'll probably think similarly. At $10, maybe you're change your mind. And if you've written it down you'll hopefully avoid this kind of mistake in the future.
People like you have been predicting cheaper gas right around the corner since 2003. They haven't been right yet.
For most of the 90s gas was underpriced compared to historical levels. This was due to a variety of reasons, some technological, some economic, some geopolitical. Over the last decade or so gas has gone up in price though the price is still quite volatile. Short-term estimates are that gas prices probably won't go much higher. Longer-term estimates are tricky, but increasing production of crude oil and natural gas from North America will probably cause prices to fall.
The "finite resource" aspect is a bit of a misnomer. Yes, oil is finite, and it is used up. But what matters is how long can current rates of use be maintained. If it's only a decade then prices will definitely skyrocket, if it's more like a century then prices might not outpace inflation.
I could argue all day about technology and production but the best argument is the simplest one, more often than not the claim that "this time it's different" is seldom justified. What argument do you have that "this time it's different" in regard to cost and volume of oil production vs, say, the 1970s?
People like you have been arguing that we're going to run out of oil since the 1950s. They haven't been right yet.
You're strawmanning. I didn't say we were going to "run out" of oil, I said prices were headed upwards, had been for a long time now, and was showing no signs of reversing. And that we're at the point now where fuel costs are 1:1 with production costs of vehicles, and thus we're going to start seeing changes in vehicle designs at the low end to compensate.
I don't see a "this time it's different" anywhere, just an extrapolation of pretty clear evidence. I'm willing to listen to alternatives, like this one:
> Short-term estimates are that gas prices probably won't go much higher.
For which you conveniently fail to produce a cite. :)
(edit: and still haven't. The only link I found that matches your point is a Reuters story saying that prices are expected to be stable "this summer". So if a three-month window is your criteria for "short term" then I grant you that. And when the expected rise continues in the fall, you'll promise to change your mind?)
It's a finite resource with a growing demand. Seems like my argument requires less in the way of elaborate justification.
I don't expect to convince you of anything. So: write it down. In 2012 you thought $4 gas was going to stop getting more expensive. In 2014 when it hits $5, you'll probably think similarly. At $10, maybe you're change your mind. And if you've written it down you'll hopefully avoid this kind of mistake in the future.
People like you have been predicting cheaper gas right around the corner since 2003. They haven't been right yet.