I agree that survivorship bias is something to watch out for. Stories that tend to do well on HN are the ones that end well.

However, I don't think that should hold back someone who is in the same position I was (a longtime lurker trying to break out). For me, a primary takeaway from this experience was the small downside compared to the large upside of each of my decisions.

Worst case: your post goes nowhere on HN, the person you reach out to ignores you, or your conversation turns up nothing fruitful.

Best Case: your post pins it on HN, the CEO agrees to meet, and it turns into a job offer.

For 30 minutes of effort - that calculation is a no brainer to me. It just takes getting over that lurker inertia, and a lot of patience for failure!

Ah, right, thanks for that.