I think the age of Rube Goldberg dinosaur fumes fire machines is over and the age of Maxwells Equations is upon us. It’s sort of like college physics progression I just realized.
Do you believe that Saudi Aramco is just going throw their arms up and be like “well, the dinosaur fumes era is over everyone! Pack it up.”
The two technologies of electric and combustion are going to coexist with each other.
The rebirth of F1 into this new hybrid generation, as well as the new dPi hybrid prototype class will prove to you that Maxwells Equation is not close, and we breaking a new era of acceleration, braking, downforce, top speed, and fuel efficiency.
I don’t think F1 is going to save Saudi Aramco. People don’t generally need a super racing machine. Maxwells equations delivers a simpler machine that satisfies all needs of any user beyond the most exotic. The Rube Goldberg machine is the actual death of ICE - as a manufacturer, who have much more influence on cars, why do I want to build and design these incredibly complex machines when I could dramatically simplify the entire chain of design, production, distribution, and maintenance by hosting a sled with batteries and some inductive motors. Once the scale of production reaches ICE levels the efficiencies of market will just destroy the ICE market. Making a more complex ICE for some exotic benefit for race car drivers isn’t going to shift that economics. Oil producers are way too far down the chain to have much a voice.
F1 is like a test bed for new vehicle technology. It's not that you'll buy a race car, or a race car engine, but those discoveries will filter down into consumer products, like they have in the past: paddle shifters, KERS, hybrid engines, rear diffusers, traction control, drive by wire, the dual clutch, plus probably a ton of improvements in tires, fuel injection, safety, suspensions etc.
So if a hybrid engine that significantly increases ICE efficiency (already the case, F1 engines are 40% more efficient than normal cars) can become mainstream and be a better fit for particular use cases, it could extend the life of gasoline-powered vehicles for a while.
I can buy that. But I’ll bet you the marginal cost of all the added complexity will (as scales of economy in the EV manufacturing process) more than offset marginal engine efficiency gains, especially if electricity prices stay significantly cheaper than gasoline.
I think the reality is the ICE is a technology whose time has come. It’s overly complex and has to be close to optimal given the sheer time and energy spent perfecting it. The EV is far from optimality and it’s improvement rates will likely be staggering over the next 20 years. It’s ok. The ICE had its day, and it was cool. Now it’s time for flying drone cars.
F1 has gotten further and further away from production deployment vehicles in favor of more entertainment for the crowds. Tires all degrade to enable more strategy, and the ground effect cars are now designed for closer racing which production vehicles don't care about. Le Mans has more production relevance than F1 now.
The USA actually has more oil reserves than Saudi Arabia. Adding Canada, you have more than double. The production cost is higher, but technology adapts... SA can't really decide when this era is over.
