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Hey Tommy! Im Tjerk your former collegae.

Anyway nice article. However your conclusions are not well founded. For example. what if majority of the traffic to your Gift Certificate Factory came from a website that went offline at the point in the graph. Then there is a different correlation.

Also i have never seen a huge drop like that. Are you sure there are no other reasons for the drop?

The peak for your MBI site might also be because some other guy linked to it from a favority website. This is often the cause for spikes like that.

Just saying, that the conclusions you make might feel right, you can never be sure with only the graphs. So its a bit of speculation.



Hey Tjerk, welcome on HN ;-)

You're right sometimes peaks can be coverage from other websites and drops can reveal a problem with a website however here it's no such case. It's pure seasonality, which is why I felt compelled to write about it :-)




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