- Composable language models will allow millions of people to collaborate on building/training AI without needing unusual GPUs or supercomputers
- Large numbers will be prime factored using guesses generated by giant "AI" statistical models. No one will understand why it works.
- The internet is flooded with AI generated non-sense
- Search engines are forced to limit the sites they search to ones with verified human generated content
- A new social network will form in which friend / connection requests are processed by passing physical business cards
- Physical business cards have a renaissance as a cottage industry
Health:
- Both ADHD and Autism will be shown to be largely caused by pollution. A group of wealthy Californians will build a small city of giant greenhouses with filtered air for their children to grow up in.
- Personal air quality monitoring devices will become ubiquitous in South Korea. At least one of these devices will claim to be able to detect viruses in the air. In 7 years The New York times will write a long form investigative journalism article about how the claim of virus detection was a giant fraud supported at the next to highest levels of government.
- There will be a small movement of cis-gendered woman who take testosterone believing it helps them better compete with men. At least two of them will be very successfully in a non-athletic field to great controversy. At least one of them will publicly suffer severe health consequences.
Military tech:
- Ukraine will develop a new inexpensive, mid tech, light weight weapon that changes warfare significantly
Economy:
- The tech jobs market will continue to crash for 4 months. Meanwhile, companies will still need their software maintained. Senior developer compensation will paradoxically increase.
Political:
- Ukraine will retake all but the eastern most sliver of Donetsk and Krym
- India will invade China to appease a large and violent nationalistic movement. They will take approximately 1.2 kilometers of barren mountain terrain. Every one will talk about it as if the world is ending. There will be only two causalities.
- Long term energy sovereignty will become a dominant political theme
Note: regarding my prediction about cis-women taking testosterone. I really don't know enough about medicine to predict that T would help/hurt cis women in business/tech and that is NOT what I am predicting. I am only predicting that there will be a small movement that DOES believe it helps. And among any small movement of people who try to be successful a few succeed. There are both successful people doing the RAW paleo diet and successful people doing the MANA/Soylent vegan meal replacer diet.
- A series of videos will be released purportedly showing a set of prominent and wealthy US individuals arranging to have their own children genetically engineered for greater intelligence and height. These videos will seam to show that at least one US billionaire believes in eugenics. The New York times will cite expert analysis claiming these videos are deep fakes. A large portion of the population will believe they are real.
Two seat fully self driving cars will become popular in Asia. They will arrive at your house with a dinner table loaded with Sushi and alcohol. They will be used for dating and business meetings rather than transportation.
- Composable language models will allow millions of people to collaborate on building/training AI without needing unusual GPUs or supercomputers
- Large numbers will be prime factored using guesses generated by giant "AI" statistical models. No one will understand why it works.
- The internet is flooded with AI generated non-sense
- Search engines are forced to limit the sites they search to ones with verified human generated content
- A new social network will form in which friend / connection requests are processed by passing physical business cards
- Physical business cards have a renaissance as a cottage industry
Health:
- Both ADHD and Autism will be shown to be largely caused by pollution. A group of wealthy Californians will build a small city of giant greenhouses with filtered air for their children to grow up in.
- Personal air quality monitoring devices will become ubiquitous in South Korea. At least one of these devices will claim to be able to detect viruses in the air. In 7 years The New York times will write a long form investigative journalism article about how the claim of virus detection was a giant fraud supported at the next to highest levels of government.
- There will be a small movement of cis-gendered woman who take testosterone believing it helps them better compete with men. At least two of them will be very successfully in a non-athletic field to great controversy. At least one of them will publicly suffer severe health consequences.
Military tech:
- Ukraine will develop a new inexpensive, mid tech, light weight weapon that changes warfare significantly
Economy:
- The tech jobs market will continue to crash for 4 months. Meanwhile, companies will still need their software maintained. Senior developer compensation will paradoxically increase.
Political:
- Ukraine will retake all but the eastern most sliver of Donetsk and Krym
- India will invade China to appease a large and violent nationalistic movement. They will take approximately 1.2 kilometers of barren mountain terrain. Every one will talk about it as if the world is ending. There will be only two causalities.
- Long term energy sovereignty will become a dominant political theme
- Biden will spend 3 weeks in the hospital