It ain't over till the fat lady sings. Bitcoin (and crypto in general) is far from done. You cannot take one data point in time and derive your conclusion based on the point in time.
Also, it does not matter what decision you would make 3 months ago with the information you have today. What matters is what decision you made 3 months ago with the information you had 3 months ago. Same for the decision you are making now.
BTW: I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you. I'm mostly disagreeing with the "methodology" :)
I'm not saying I don't buy crypto because it crashed at this point in time. I'm saying continuously over a very long period of time I haven't bought crypto, and that's based on the information I have had over that continual period of time. Nothing has changed for me with this crash except that some people who I think are wrong are going to shut up now. (edit: I dream - I'm sure they'll find a way to tell me they're just buying the dip).
I'm saying I don't buy Bitcoin because at no point in the last few years have I seen it be used for anything other than speculation. There are no dividends. There are no voting rights in anything. There is no actual asset aside from a number that a blockchain says you own. It's like owning a share of a company that doesn't actually exist. The only upside is I can buy it and then get lucky and sell it for more than I paid for it, to someone who will almost certainly eventually get unlucky when things crash because it is and always has been useless. I see it as being no different than roulette, a game I also don't play.
It's a fascinating technology on which to build a digital currency, but rounding down, currency seems to be none of the actual usage.
> I've been getting told for months that I'm missing the train and making a bad decision by a guy who bought BTC at 60k and told me "everyone" was saying it was going to go past 100k. And apparently I was a fool for investing in property and a diversified stock and bond portfolio. So yeah - I feel somewhat vindicated right now.
I.e. Feeling vindicated right now does not necessarily match what you're going to feel when this is all over.
> I'm saying I don't buy Bitcoin because at no point in the last few years have I seen it be used for anything other than speculation. There are no dividends. There are no voting rights in anything. There is no actual asset aside from a number that a blockchain says you own. It's like owning a share of a company that doesn't actually exist. The only upside is I can buy it and then get lucky and sell it for more than I paid for it, to someone who will almost certainly eventually get unlucky when things crash because it is and always has been useless. I see it as being no different than roulette, a game I also don't play.
People do use it as a payment instrument. More than you think. Speculation is happening, yes, but at the end of the day, if bitcoin makes it or not is going to be tied to its use as a monetary instrument.
The most generous estimate I can find of monetary usage is 10%. Most estimates are less than half that. I don't remember the last time I saw a legal business that accepted crypto as payment or heard of anyone I know using crypto as a currency. The way it's taxed doesn't seem very currency-like to me. I've yet to hear some practical reason for crypto better than "no bro, you'll see".
Also, it does not matter what decision you would make 3 months ago with the information you have today. What matters is what decision you made 3 months ago with the information you had 3 months ago. Same for the decision you are making now.
BTW: I'm not necessarily disagreeing with you. I'm mostly disagreeing with the "methodology" :)