Thanks for the interesting link. However, based on the paper, it seems like a "30 point increase out of 2400 points" could be significant. The study says:
"A survey of NACAC-member colleges unexpectedly revealed that in a substantial minority of cases, colleges report either that they use a cut-off test score in the admission process or that a small increase in test score could have a significant impact on an applicant’s chances of being admitted." (p. 2)
The paper later notes:
"These results indicate that in some cases more than one third of postsecondary institutions agreed that a score increase on the SAT-M of 20 points, or a score increase on the SAT-CR of 10 points, would 'significantly improve student’s likelihood of admission.' This proportion tends to rise as the base level of the SAT score before the 20 or 10 point score improvement rises. This is especially true for the more selective institutions. At lower scores on the SAT scale, a small score increase does the most to improve a student’s chances of admission at less selective institutions; at higher scores, the same increase appears to have an equally large or even larger impact at more selective institutions." (p. 19)
The graphs on pages 18 and 19 give more detail.
The paper also notes that "The College Board gives a specific example of a use that should be avoided: 'Making decisions about otherwise qualified students based only on small differences in test scores'." So it appears that up to a third of the institutions surveyed are not following this guideline. It would be interesting to know who they are.
I agree with your comment about rich kids gaming GPA, essays, and extracurriculars. Daniel Markovits addresses many of these points in "The Meritocracy Trap". Since I don't see how you can prevent gaming GPA, essays, or extracurriculars, given the alternatives, you're probably right that the tests may be better in this respect.
"A survey of NACAC-member colleges unexpectedly revealed that in a substantial minority of cases, colleges report either that they use a cut-off test score in the admission process or that a small increase in test score could have a significant impact on an applicant’s chances of being admitted." (p. 2)
The paper later notes:
"These results indicate that in some cases more than one third of postsecondary institutions agreed that a score increase on the SAT-M of 20 points, or a score increase on the SAT-CR of 10 points, would 'significantly improve student’s likelihood of admission.' This proportion tends to rise as the base level of the SAT score before the 20 or 10 point score improvement rises. This is especially true for the more selective institutions. At lower scores on the SAT scale, a small score increase does the most to improve a student’s chances of admission at less selective institutions; at higher scores, the same increase appears to have an equally large or even larger impact at more selective institutions." (p. 19)
The graphs on pages 18 and 19 give more detail.
The paper also notes that "The College Board gives a specific example of a use that should be avoided: 'Making decisions about otherwise qualified students based only on small differences in test scores'." So it appears that up to a third of the institutions surveyed are not following this guideline. It would be interesting to know who they are.
I agree with your comment about rich kids gaming GPA, essays, and extracurriculars. Daniel Markovits addresses many of these points in "The Meritocracy Trap". Since I don't see how you can prevent gaming GPA, essays, or extracurriculars, given the alternatives, you're probably right that the tests may be better in this respect.