48>40

So from far away, I would question the neutrality of the Centre d'Studis d'Opinió.

Also, if the numbers are right, then why on earth does the spanish government escalate and not just let them have a referendum which fails and have peace afterwards?

They are the "Department of Statistics" of Catalonia, and they are controlled by the local government (pro-independence), so i am not sure why would they be biased to report lower support than the actual one. Our Constitution does not consider secession of part of a territory. To hold a referendum, they will have to change the constitution first, which is unlikely to happen in the short term.

Also, I am not sure that a referèndum is the best way to settle this conflict. I think that other options that can gather the support of more than 50% of the population would offer a better solution. (i.e., how do you build a new country when half of the population feels strongly about it?)

this is exactly the current situation with spain! About half of catalans feel very strongly against the spanish state. This is obviously not sustainable. But the spaniards prefer to bully the catalans, to earn votes elsewhere, than to solve the problem once and for all by holding a binding independence referendum.

I for one couldn't care less anymore about the spanish position. I do not consider spain a legitimate state, and we will have to free ourselves from it by any means necessary.

Brexit would like a word with you.

Support for independence and voting share of parties supporting Catalan independence are two different things. Heavily correlated, sure, but not equivalent.