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US oil from Saudi Arabia: 876,000 barrels/month.

US total oil consumption: 19,690,000 barrels/month.

The US is now the world's largest oil producer. OPEC is scared.[1] For the US, oil is a sideline. For Saudi Arabia, it's all they've got. The US is headed for energy independence, just because of market forces.

[1] https://dailycaller.com/2018/10/19/opec-rising-us-oil-output...



This entire issue is about non-US nations being dependent upon Saudi (and more generally - OPEC) oil and thus being directly dependent upon the dollar. Reducing our direct reliance on oil benefits the petrodollar by increasing the ratio of foreign players removing USD from circulation for us, but I don't think it's a big player in either case. The numbers you reference are per day, not per month. The scale of these things is quite remarkable isn't it? Now compare our consumption to our estimated entire reserves of oil. The US may well become energy independent in the longrun, but it won't be on oil.

But to a degree this is also the same for the entire world. Global oil consumption is expected to peak in the late 2030s. As demand for oil declines prices will go up to try to sustain the standard of living that OPEC nations have grown accustomed to. But as this happens it will make non-oil alternatives even more economically justified leading to even less oil demand in the longrun which leads to higher prices which ... This is what I meant when I said that the petrodollar is dying, but it's still going to be a long slow death which gives us hope of finding ways to stabilize things before then.

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You can even see direct analogs of this entire scenario with China. China seems to be investing based on the presumption of an electric/renewable heavy future and are working to corner some important resources there. Outside of simply becoming world leaders in the tech themselves, the world's cobalt supply, for instance, is now being heavily controlled by China. They aren't even operating through proxy, as we did with oil. What this will mean is that, if China's 'bet' turns out to be true, is that the get access to cobalt you'll need to play by China's terms which could, for instance, involve trades being settled only in yuan. And suddenly we have the 'cobalt dollar'. Everything from solar cells to lithium ion batteries are all dependent upon cobalt. It's quite a prescient move. The big difference is that oil was irreplaceable, cobalt is perhaps less so.


The US also has a good chunk of rare earths. It was a shortsighted move to allow the mining equipment to be sold off to China for a quick buck. But there's still time to fix this.




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