> Option A: get elected, spend first few years of my time in office trying to understand what's going on. By the time I achieve enlightenment, my term is over and I will not be reelected because I have nothing to show for my time in office.
I don't think we are really disagreeing... The electorate is just stuck in a loop in this case where their own impatience (no doubt stirred by those looking to challenge the status quo) works against them.
> Option B: study the problem first. It may take longer this way, because politicians have access to resources that not everyone has. Eventually understand the problem well enough to propose a solution I think will help, and then run on a platform advocating that solution.
Likely the only solution that will work, but it's hard, and you have the problem of convincing people that your understanding and solution is correct. I suspect being correct might even be an impediment to being elected, because you'll likely have some hard truths to swallow for the electorate, which some other less robust solutions can likely sidestep - or safely target towards only a specific segment of the electorate - since they don't have the added burden of actually having to solve the problem.
> (There is also option C: make up a plausible sounding solution without even caring whether it works or not; but then you're just seeking power and don't care about the problem at all. Let's ignore that for now, despite the fact that I sometimes worry that this may account for a large fraction of politicians.)
Well, I think we can't ignore that, because that's almost exactly what I was referring to. :) The main difference being that the politicians may not be purposefully - or at least not consciously - trying to put forth solutions that are incorrect or at least very poorly researched and understood. It's expedient to their worldview to not look too closely at whether their "hunches" about the problem and solution stand up under scrutiny, and confirmation bias takes care of the rest.
Combine this with an electorate that is increasingly upset about the problem and wants a solution ASAP, and you get a revolving door of politicians that espouse their pet solutions to the problem, possibly alternating between opposing extremes that can both be incorrect.
I don't think we are really disagreeing... The electorate is just stuck in a loop in this case where their own impatience (no doubt stirred by those looking to challenge the status quo) works against them.
> Option B: study the problem first. It may take longer this way, because politicians have access to resources that not everyone has. Eventually understand the problem well enough to propose a solution I think will help, and then run on a platform advocating that solution.
Likely the only solution that will work, but it's hard, and you have the problem of convincing people that your understanding and solution is correct. I suspect being correct might even be an impediment to being elected, because you'll likely have some hard truths to swallow for the electorate, which some other less robust solutions can likely sidestep - or safely target towards only a specific segment of the electorate - since they don't have the added burden of actually having to solve the problem.
> (There is also option C: make up a plausible sounding solution without even caring whether it works or not; but then you're just seeking power and don't care about the problem at all. Let's ignore that for now, despite the fact that I sometimes worry that this may account for a large fraction of politicians.)
Well, I think we can't ignore that, because that's almost exactly what I was referring to. :) The main difference being that the politicians may not be purposefully - or at least not consciously - trying to put forth solutions that are incorrect or at least very poorly researched and understood. It's expedient to their worldview to not look too closely at whether their "hunches" about the problem and solution stand up under scrutiny, and confirmation bias takes care of the rest.
Combine this with an electorate that is increasingly upset about the problem and wants a solution ASAP, and you get a revolving door of politicians that espouse their pet solutions to the problem, possibly alternating between opposing extremes that can both be incorrect.