Basically is anyone of the opinion that we will ever be able to create software development methods which are significantly (orders of magnitude) more productive than what we have now?
His argument, is that there isn't a single programming methodology that creates order of magnitude productivity gains. It's worth a read.
I don't really think that the answer to your question lies in user of programming methodologies. I do think that you can get great improvements in productivity based on tool selection, however. See PG's essays on beating the averages.
will we ever reach the point where users/customers/clients can have very capable and sophisticated custom made or customized applications for a price that warrants "wasteful" or "trivial" (for trivial reasons) software development?
I think it's already being done.
Non-programmers are already using specialized scripting languages like BBS code, or html tags to customize their web pages, forum posts and blogs. People are using Excel scripting to write their own mini financial applications. Graphics programs like Maya, Houdini and After Effects have built in scripting languages for procedural graphics. And, years ago, the Word Perfect word processor was built on the idea of a template language for document layout.
The canonical essay on this topic, is Fred Brooks: No Silver Bullet. http://info.computer.org/portal/site/computer/menuitem.eb7d7...;
His argument, is that there isn't a single programming methodology that creates order of magnitude productivity gains. It's worth a read.
I don't really think that the answer to your question lies in user of programming methodologies. I do think that you can get great improvements in productivity based on tool selection, however. See PG's essays on beating the averages.
will we ever reach the point where users/customers/clients can have very capable and sophisticated custom made or customized applications for a price that warrants "wasteful" or "trivial" (for trivial reasons) software development?
I think it's already being done.
Non-programmers are already using specialized scripting languages like BBS code, or html tags to customize their web pages, forum posts and blogs. People are using Excel scripting to write their own mini financial applications. Graphics programs like Maya, Houdini and After Effects have built in scripting languages for procedural graphics. And, years ago, the Word Perfect word processor was built on the idea of a template language for document layout.