But of course, how much Russia encourages operators on this route will have a great impact on the number of migrants on this route. Russian border guards belong to the security service, FSB, who in turn is direct control of Putin. No business of this type will thrive in Russia without the blessing of the president and his trusted business partners.

But Russia has here a great chance of miscalculating and increasing pressure, making Finland close the border and even move towards NATO membership.