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In case you haven't been following Ukraine, that's what it's doing. It has multiple cheap long range drones (FP-1, FP-2, etc) plus more expensive ones (FP-5), and it's making them in the millions a year, I think.

They just took out 40% of Russian oil export capacity.


no, the million or two is small battlefield drones, mostly quadcopters carrying an RPG warhead or similarly sized payload. The long range drones - and they carry only relatively small, like 20-50kg payloads - are well under 100 thousands. FP-5 was declared 1 per day half a year ago. By now i think we've seen may be 10-20 such missiles used - they use real turbo jet engine, there isn't much of them available, and they are expensive.

>They just took out 40% of Russian oil export capacity.

Yes, Ust-Luga and Primorsk. Very successful hits. Painful for Putin. Yet it isn't a knock-down. Russia is like a big drunk guy in a street fight - just delivering painful blows to him doesn't help, you have to deliver a knock-out blow, and unfortunately Ukraine still seems far from it.


There will be no knockout punch here, instead it will be death by exhaustion.

North Vietnam didn't die of exhaustion, nor did Afghanistan (2x), Iraq.

For reference, it's likely Ukraine is making more medium cheap drones per year than Iran, the current boogeyman.

This war will end the same way, probably around 2030.


Countries aren't human. You don't deliver a "knock out punch".

WW2 wasn't ended by capturing Berlin, it was ended because the German military was destroyed or surrendered as they were forced back towards Berlin.

By the time it fell, there wasn't an effective German military left.


How do these compare to Open AI OSS?

Nah. DotNet.

Next name: ThinksForSure. It worked for PlaysForSure [1] so why not for this next step towards the abyss?

[1] https://grokipedia.com/page/microsoft_playsforsure#discontin...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_PlaysForSure#Critici...


Does it even make sense to build everything on top of machines that are 70% reliable? The sheer orchestration and validation overhead at scale risks being more expensive than just keeping most software engineers and having them manage a few AI agents.

Also, 200 years ago we didn't have bike mechanics. Car mechanics. Boat mechanics. Plumbers. Electricians. Not all new professions fade away.


If you include consulting that could easily be 10 companies a year...

Why would a company you are consulting for invest in training you up exactly? They are paying a consultant with the expectation that they are bringing the knowledge.

Eh, consultants are brought in not for the knowledge or advice! Management already knows what todo and where to go- they just want somebody external sanctify the decision!

Could easily be, yes. And they'd be right not to invest in OP's skills.

(To explicitly state the obvious: I'm not saying OP's a bad person for doing this, just saying the employers were right not to invest in them...)


At least Gemini and Claude constantly break down with scrolling in various Linux terminals, something which was solved by countless TUIs decades ago.

I think a lot of the people prasing Claude & co are on Macs.


Most of their issues have been solved a long time ago, with 1000x less code. It is depressing at this point. I really had no clue IT was in the shitters this much. I knew it was theatrical but I had no idea that it was by this much.

All these AI tools teams have most valid excuse "We are just a bunch of people who only know Javascript/typescript/NodeJS. Please bear with us while we resolve 10,000 open issues."

I haven't seen the scrolling glitch in months, where previously it was happening multiple times a day. Also haven't seen anyone complain about it in quite some time. Pretty sure they have resolved that.

They have not! If I am scrolled up while more output is produced, the scrollback jumps to the top pretty consistently.

I'll try again but lately I've been using strictly the VS Code terminal. Gnome Terminal and Termux in Ubuntu 24.04 were unusable even with 1000 hacks.

I'm on a mac! And I still find bugs on a regular basis...

It even wrote an entire browser!

By "just" wrapping a browser engine.


I think the "breakage" is in terms of conciseness and compactness, not outright brokenness.

Like that drunk uncle that takes half an hour and 20 000 words to tell you a 500 word story.


No way this will end badly, when Alphabet (!!!) had to issue bonds for the first time in its history.

In 2 years' time we will look back fondly at the Global Financial Crisis.


Hey, at least it's better than your other one.

https://landley.net/history/mirror/linux/kissedagirl.html


For whatever it's worth (perhaps not much?), I was actually asked about this three-decade-old post (!) recently on the Peterman Pod[0], which allowed for a slightly more nuanced discussion.

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qhSL-5GtmQM&t=3757s


I really can't think of a better way to respond to this situation. It is clear to me that over the next decade the amount of people who will have been hot-headed kids on the internet who grow up to fully-fledged adults who have said they no longer agree with things in ways that are not kind is going to be a lot higher. I've no doubt said things that I no longer agreed with that made sense in the context of when they were posted.

Thank you for being a good role model and setting the example that saying "that was bad, here is the context, but I don't like that I said that."


Oh! This is a great explanation, thanks. I remember your original exchange (and I found it baffling and uncharacteristic), and I remember the William Shatner SNL Trek convention sketch, but I never made the connection between them.

Yeah, I know, I think you were 25 or something back then :-)

I was 22! (I was only slightly older than my oldest kid is now!) So... yeah. May your mistakes at 22 not follow you around at age 52!

I forgot how much I hated the mixture of top and bottom quoting

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