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I think there's an implicit assumption here that there will be a definite end date to this. I really hope there is, but there's another possibility that looks more likely as time goes on: lockdown has permanently broken the brains of some types of political leader and they will in fact never fully release the restrictions. Places like SF and NY will have long term restrictions lasting years, justified in the name of public health, the "new normal" and epidemic curves that never flatten (given current testing levels the curve can never drop to zero just due to FPs alone).

Many parts of the US will definitely go back to normal, but maybe not everywhere. It may be a permanent structural change in laws and government approaches.



Yeah sometimes I think that too. I just don't think people will put up with it. They'll vote in anti lockdown politicians. I hope so anyway.

If trump wins, then who knows.


I'm curious if this will ever end either. For example, my understanding is...

30% of people will never take a vaccine [0]

The first couple vaccines will be 40-60% effective [1]

Similar vaccines never exceed 70% effectiveness. [2]

It's unclear how many boosters you'll need, etc.

I hope someone out there is crunching the numbers and seeing the issue.

[0] https://news.gallup.com/poll/317018/one-three-americans-not-... [1] https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/09/12/9119879... [2] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm




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